St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots – August 26, 2010 7:30

Despite a previous tweet, I contracted football fever and can no longer refrain from posting an NFL pick.  Since my first post last Monday, I lasted a total of 11 days.  My first football pick this year is the Rams and Patriots game.

The Rams didn’t look too hot in their opening game but ground out a win in their 2nd.  Between the 2 games, they totaled 322 yards on offense while allowing 699 yards. With AJ Feeley out with “game-keepers” thumb, the Rams will need rookie Sam Bradford to dramatically improve from his 6/14 24 yd performance.  Only averaging 2.6 yards per play with a .48% completion rate, it is hard to be optimistic about the Rams tonight.

The Patriots are a much different story.  They have been sharp in the first two games, out scoring opponents 56 to 34.  The Patriots are averaging 5.1 yards per play while holding opponents to 4.6.  The Patriots are +3 in turnovers and both Tom Brady and back up Brian Hoyer are playing well.

Based on my football simulations, the project score is New England 29.2 to St. Louis 18.7 for an over/under total of 47.9 points.  This is driven by New England’s offensive efficiency and both teams limited ability to stop the run.

I expect the Rams to improve tonight and the Patriots to continue to be offensively effective.  Today’s bet is on the total.  Take the St. Louis Rams/New England Patriots over 38 points.  Good Luck!

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