Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies – August 25, 2010 3:10 ET

Today’s we are looking at an early game between the Atlanta Braves (73-53) and the Colorado Rockies (65-60).  For a few reasons, it feels like a trap game for Atlanta.  It is the end of a 6 game road trip for Atlanta (Angle #1 for Colorado).  The Braves have lost the first 2 games of the series and are now the favorite in the finale (Angle #2 for Colorado, 53.2% win rate).  The Rockies have won 3 in a row and are playing at home (Angle #3 for Colorado, 68.2% win rate).  Atlanta is the superior team on paper but can they overcome the gods of betting angle fate?

The Braves lead the NL East by 2.5 games but are only 3-4 in their last 7 games.  The Braves have continued to find ways to muster up an offense, but over the last 7 games they have given up 4.4 runs versus their 3.7 runs allowed season average.  They will need to hit today as the Rockies average 3.1 runs per game more at home than on the road (5.7 home vs. 2.6 road).  Jair Jurrjens (5-4, 1.238 WHIP) takes the mound today.  Jurrjens has pitched strong in his last 3 starts allowing 6 runs in 21.3 innings.  Will Jurrjens hot pitching be enough to slow down the home bats of Colorado?

The Rockies have won 3 straight and are 4-3 in their last 7.  Colorado didn’t bat particularly well on the recent road trip but looked to have turned it around at home.  Esmil Rogers (2-2, 1.509 WHIP) gets the start for the Rockies today.  Rogers pitched well last time out, allowing 1 run on 6 hits over 6 innings last time out.  Another step forward would make Colorado tough today.

The simulated results favor Atlanta 4.52 to Colorado 4.03.  This is less than 1 standard deviation difference.  The key driver in the model’s results is in the Atlanta hitting vs. Colorado pitching match up.  The game is likely to be determined by whether Atlanta can drive runners on base home or Rogers can limit hits given up.

Considering the 3 betting angles, the close model results, and betting value, today’s bet is with Colorado. Bet the Colorado Rockies on the Money Line for +115.  Good Luck.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: